by Xinhua writers Tai Beiping, Fei Liena
HANOI, Feb. 26 (Xinhua) -- As U.S. President Donald Trump and top leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) Kim Jong Un are set to meet here Wednesday and Thursday for their second summit, analysts believe that more concrete steps and reciprocal measures are urgently needed if the two sides aim to make real progress.
While recognizing their first meeting in June last year as a historic breakthrough, analysts tend to share the view that the outcome from the Singapore summit lacks a realistic roadmap for implementation. From Singapore to Hanoi, more substantial moves and clearer demonstration of trust are required.
LITTLE PROGRESS SINCE SINGAPORE SUMMIT
Four issues were agreed upon during the first summit -- development of new DPRK-U.S. relations, complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, a lasting peace regime on the peninsula, and returning the remains of U.S. soldiers killed during the Korean War.
"They have bigger work to do," said Kim Joon-hyung, a professor of international studies at South Korea's Handong Global University, referring to the Hanoi summit.
"The first summit was historic. It was the beginning of engagement and negotiation," the South Korean scholar said. "Kim Jong Un and Trump all know they have to reach more concrete agreements at this time. They have to reach a conclusion."
Jenna Gibson, director of communications at the Washington-based Korea Economic Institute (KEI), said that Trump is likely going into the meeting in Vietnam with two objectives in mind.
"Given a lot of skepticism and critics to his Singapore summit with Kim, Trump is expecting to secure some kind of concession or concrete promise from Kim to show that his engagement plan has been and still is working. So Trump is likely hoping to prove the naysayers wrong with a summit that results in more than just a photo-op," Gibson said.
Yang Xiyu, a researcher from the China Institute of International Studies, said that from June to the end of last year, the DPRK-U.S. relations were basically stagnant. Following the Singapore summit, there was a warming up of ties, but then there was stalemate or even some cooling down.
"The lack of trust was deep-rooted between the DPRK and the United States. Therefore even consensus on principles were reached between leaders, real implementation was hard to proceed as suspicions still exist," said the researcher.
Yang noted that no substantial progress has been made since then, either in the two countries' relations, or in targets on denuclearization.
MAIN TOPICS TO BE DISCUSSED IN HANOI
For the second summit between Kim and Trump, expectations will be high on an outcome that demonstrates tangible signs of progress, focusing on any pragmatic move toward denuclearization and any easing of sanctions.
Kyle Ferrier, an analyst from the KEI, said that Washington would seek concrete steps toward denuclearization and seems to be willing to declare an end to the Korean War to get it.
"Pyongyang would certainly welcome an end of war declaration, which is the first step in reaching a more enduring peace on the Korean Peninsula," Ferrier said.
The analyst predicted that the safe bet for a summit outcome would be an end of war declaration and some sanctions relief from the United States in exchange for the verified dismantlement of DPRK's nuclear reactor at Yongbyon and access to verify the dismantlement of testing sites at Tongchang-ri and Punggye-ri.
Much less certain, however, is how these will all be sequenced and how the United States will try to ease sanctions, Ferrier added.
Researcher Yang Xiyu said that for the discussions to be held in Hanoi, the focal point is to observe whether the two sides can launch pragmatic negotiations on dismantling the Yongbyon nuclear facility, and start to discuss the related reciprocal measures for this move.
"This will be the touchstone for whether denuclearization and improvement of bilateral relations could be further carried forward after the second summit," Yang said.
For professor Kim Joon-hyung, the things on the watch list include inspections and verifications of Tongchang-ri engine test site and Punggye-ri nuclear test site, as well as the war-ending declaration and the setting up of liaison offices between Washington and Pyongyang.
TRUST-BUILDING HOLDS KEY
Negotiations after the two leaders' first meeting in Singapore last year went into a stalemate. It was due to differences on a set of specific issues, yet fundamentally, it was caused by a lack of trust between the two sides.
Professor Kim Joon-hyung said that from the DPRK'S perspective, the United States didn't keep the promise and didn't do enough, while pushing another thing the DPRK should concede.
"Because of the resistance and criticism inside the U.S., the U.S. pushed another agenda. That's why there was a period. The U.S. kept asking the DPRK to report all the lists of nuclear sites and programs. That's why the deadlock was so long," Kim said.
Meanwhile, the differences in the two countries' political systems and to what extent the two leaders have the ability to implement what they decide also affect their confidence in each other, according to the professor.
Mutual trust holds the key as to whether Washington and Pyongyang can really make big breakthroughs. In this regard, good signs are noticeable as both sides have been showing efforts toward this end.
Since last year, the DPRK has been making remarkable efforts to improve its foreign relations. At the beginning of 2019, Kim Jong Un released a series of positive signals in his New Year speech, including reaffirming his resolution to achieve denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
And just days ahead of the Hanoi summit, Trump said that he would like to see the ultimate denuclearization of the DPRK, but added he was "in no particular rush," to some extent showing a bit more flexibility.
(Xinhua reporters Geng Xuepeng, Liu Pinran, Zhu Dongyang, Hao Yalin also contributed to this story.)
