by Julia Pierrepont III
LOS ANGELES, March. 2 (Xinhua) -- Though conventional wisdom holds that many of the top Oscar slots are a shoe-in, others believe some big surprises are still in store.
The recent additions to the Academy membership, its odd preferential ballot that requires each winner to amass 50 percent of the votes, plus the groundswell of the Time's Up campaign calling for an urgent need to combat sexual abuse may send seismic shock waves all the way to the Oscar stage on Sunday.
BEST PICTURE
The Best Picture race is a case in point. Released early in the year, "Dunkirk" had gained a beachhead and was predicted to win the Best Picture award - and Variety magazine still thinks it will.
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" raged ahead to win Best Picture nods at the Golden Globes and the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA), moving it to the top of the prediction lists of USA Today, Gold Derby, Esquire and many others.
Hollywood Reporter, threefiftyeight.com and IndieWire disagree, predicting that "The Shape of Water" will swim to victory, based on its rising popularity and the fact that many voters dislike "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri."
Betting on a more distant outlier, Vanity Fair predicts "Get Out" will rise from the Sunken Place into the limelight, as does Matt Fagerholm of RogerEbert.com, who thinks a "Spotlight" moment is looming that will send Jonathan Peele home with both "Best Picture" and "Best Original Screenplay" statues.
BEST DIRECTOR
Best Director seems more of a lock, with Vanity Fair, USA Today, and IndieWire all predicting Guillermo del Toro, director of "The Shape of Water" will lap the other contenders. Esquire cautions against counting Christopher Nolan out just yet, explaining that the multiple-Oscar nominee is long overdue for Academy recognition.
BEST ACTOR
For the Best Actor category, Timothee Chalamet and his luminous breakout performance in "Call me By Your Name" set tongues wagging, but the Academy rarely anoints such a neophyte, especially with veteran Gary Oldman in the mix.
For his brilliant, transformative performance in "Darkest Hour," Oldman is the closest thing to a sure bet for the Best Actor crown, according to USA Today, Gold Derby, threefiftyeight.com, and IndieWire, especially after sweeping the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the Aussie Awards.
Daniel Day Lewis,though, may be an unexpected contender, given his announcement that "Phantom Thread" will be his swan song.
BEST ACTRESS
For Best Actress, Sally Hawkins' incandescent performance in "The Shape of Water" has wowed critics and viewers alike, as has Saoirse Ronan's portrayal of an adolescent in search of her identity, causing early speculation that one of them could take the crown.
However, according to Vanity Fair, USA Today, Esquire, and Hollywood Reporter, in this era of #MeToo and #TimesUp , nothing trumps the rage of a bereaved mother.
So, most critics are now predicting that Francis McDormand will nab the statue for the embittered, in-your-face, avenging mom she played in "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri." It is that role that will see McDormand eclipse even Meryl Streep.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Another shoe-in is Allison Janney for Best Supporting Actress, playing the abusive, vitriolic mother in "I, Tanya." She is predicted to win by Esquire, Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair and Gold Derby, amongst many others.
A possible spoiler is Laurie Metcalf, as the proud, prickly, hovering mom in "Lady Bird." It's noteworthy that three of the five Best Actress nominees spring from stories that revolve around intense mother-daughter relationships.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sam Rockwell, portraying "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" dim-witted, racist cop with anger management issues, is the heavy favorite for Best Supporting Actor.
Rockwell has leapfrogged over original front-runner, Willem Dafoe, whose rather scruffy, all-suffering, flea-bag hotel manager in "The Florida Project" had also captured many critics' hearts.
OTHER POSSIBLE WINNERS
Other predictions include:
Best Original Screenplay: "Get Out," for its clever, pithy twists and for reanimating the race conversation in a completely fresh and accessible way; "Lady Bird," which won the "National Society of Film Critics Best Screenplay Awards" and "Best Picture - Comedy" at the Golden Globes.
Best Adapted Screenplay: "Call Me By Your Name," by 89-year-old James Ivory, a beloved filmmaker with multiple Oscar nominations but no wins.
Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins for his work in "Blade Runner 2049." Rachael Morrison of "Mudbound" is the first woman ever to be nominated in this category.
Best Production Design: Paul Austerberry of "The Shape of Water." Many critics give him an edge for his gorgeously faded Parisian glamour meets the grit of Film Noir.
